Circle Internet stock has remained under heavy pressure as the company faces falling USDC supply, fading momentum in its Arc layer-1 blockchain, and lower US bond yields. CRCL ended last week at $82.22, down 42% from its highest level this year, and has fallen below its 50-day moving average.
CoinMarketCap data shows USDC’s market capitalization has dropped to $72.4 billion from $76 billion in September and below the year-to-date high of $80 billion. Because Circle invests most of its USDC reserves in short-term government bonds, falling yields create another revenue headwind. The three-month Treasury yield has eased to 4.17% from a monthly high of 4.2%. Analysts expect Circle’s third-quarter revenue to be about $785 million, up 6.25% year over year, with full-year revenue estimated at $3.02 billion.
Arc Blockchain growth has also stalled. DeFi Llama data shows total value locked on Arc has slipped to $525 million from an all-time high of $566 million. The largest dApps on the network include Morpho Blue, Aave V4, Galaxy Curation, and Keyrock. Arc’s stablecoin supply is roughly $666 million, with USDC holding the largest share, but growth remains slower than newer chains such as Robinhood Chain. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has dropped to $80,000 and broader crypto token demand has weakened.
Circle also published a detailed first-half 2026 revenue breakdown. The company generated about $1.4 billion in revenue, of which roughly $819 million, or about 59 cents of every dollar, was paid to distribution partners including wallets, exchanges, banks, fintechs, and payment networks. Another $473 million, about 34 cents per dollar, was reinvested into licenses, banking relationships, settlement liquidity, compliance, product development, and blockchain integrations. Circle retained approximately 7 cents in net profit per revenue dollar.
Circle said USDC processed more than $36 trillion in onchain transaction volume in the first half of 2026, with more than $315 billion minted and redeemed at an average of about $1.7 billion per day. By June, USDC accounted for roughly 77% of global stablecoin transaction volume, up from 60% a year earlier. The company cited a partner base of more than 150 participants. Coinbase reported record average USDC balances of $20 billion in the second quarter, up 44% year over year, while Binance signed a five-year commercial agreement and invested $100 million in Circle.
Circle emphasized free standard redemptions through banking rails, typically settling within two business days, and near-real-time redemptions for customers using the Circle Payments Network or Circle Platform. The company highlighted its OCC national trust bank charter, MiCA compliance, more than 25 bank relationships, reserves in a BlackRock-managed government money market fund, and native deployments on more than 35 blockchains.
Technically, CRCL has formed a bullish flag pattern, suggesting a potential rebound toward $100, with further upside toward $112 if resistance is cleared. A drop below the Major S/R pivot near $75 would invalidate that bullish outlook.
