Netflix reports third quarter results on Tuesday against guidance it set three months ago and has not revised since. The company guided revenue to $12,860 million, diluted earnings to $0.82 per share, and an operating margin of 33.2%, five points above the same quarter of 2025. The stock closed Friday at $70.53, down 2.86% on the session, leaving it 41.81% lower over twelve months and 25.07% lower year to date, with a market capitalization of $293.68 billion.
Results are scheduled to post on ir.netflix.net at approximately 1:01 p.m. Pacific Time on Tuesday, 20 October, with a live video interview starting at approximately 1:45 p.m. Pacific on the company’s investor relations YouTube channel. Co-chief executives Greg Peters and Ted Sarandos will take questions alongside chief financial officer Spence Neumann and finance and investor relations head Spencer Wang. Analysts submit questions in advance, and the letter published at 1:01 carries the quarter’s only written guidance for the fourth quarter.
Consensus has converged on Netflix’s own $0.82 after starting at $0.84, with revenue consensus near $12.87 billion. The comparison that matters sits in the fourth quarter guidance, because the full-year range of $51.0 billion to $51.4 billion still has to be reconciled with whatever Tuesday prints. Netflix also said in July it was on track to deliver approximately $3 billion in ads revenue in 2026, roughly double the prior year, tied to live events including the Women’s World Cup, an expanded NFL schedule, WWE and MLB. The company does not break out advertising revenue as a line item, so the number arrives as commentary rather than a checkable filing figure.
Second quarter free cash flow came in at $1.53 billion against $2.27 billion a year earlier, a drop Netflix attributed to content spending timing. Content amortization is expected to grow about 10% across 2026 and more slowly in the second half. Netflix also cut about 1,000 roles, roughly 6% of a workforce of about 16,000, mostly in product, technology, legal and human resources, six days before the print, so any charge or saving from those cuts lands in the fourth quarter rather than in Tuesday’s margin.
The options market points to renewed volatility after earnings. Options expiring on Friday have an implied volatility of 92.3%, much higher than the historical volatility of 34%. The put/call ratio is less than 0.40, indicating more calls than puts. Analysts have a mixed outlook: BMO Capital Markets cut its target from $135 to $125 with an outperform rating, Wedbush lowered its target from $105 to $90, and Jefferies has a target of $85.
Technically, the weekly chart shows a series of lower lows and lower highs since June last year. NFLX has moved below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level of $75, dropped below the 50-week and 200-week Exponential Moving Averages, remained below the Supertrend indicator, and the MACD has remained below the zero line. There is a risk of a bearish breakout to the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement level near $61, about 14% below the current level, while a move above $77 would invalidate the bearish outlook.
