SpaceX is set to report third-quarter earnings after Tuesday’s close, with shares trading near $146 after dropping almost 15% over the previous eight sessions. Wall Street expects revenue of about $12.89 billion, a roughly 65% year-over-year increase, and earnings of 14 cents per share compared with a nine-cent loss in the prior quarter.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is more optimistic, projecting $13 billion in revenue, $6.9 billion in adjusted EBITDA and earnings of 19 cents per share. He also forecasts 14.3 million consumer Starlink subscribers paying an average of $63.60 per month. Jonas rates the stock Overweight with a $300 price target and views Starship Flight 15, potentially in the first half of November, as a positive catalyst.
Investors will focus on spending and cash generation. In the second quarter, SpaceX posted total revenue of $7.8 billion, including $4.29 billion from connectivity and $2.56 billion from AI, but reported an operating loss of $143 million. Capital expenditure reached $18.4 billion, with $15.83 billion allocated to AI infrastructure. Starlink’s direct-to-cell expansion is also in focus, with about 650 satellites currently supporting the service and regulatory approval for 15,000 more.
Among 35 analysts covering SpaceX, 28 rate it a buy, five hold and two sell, producing a Moderate Buy consensus with an average 12-month target of $217.50. The Global X Space Tech ETF (ORBX) carries a 25.44% position in SpaceX, so the report may also affect that fund.
The earnings arrive during a tense stretch for technology and growth shares. The Nasdaq fell 4.5% last week and the Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped 11.41%, pressured by AI-related debt concerns and a hotter-than-expected inflation reading that raised expectations the Federal Reserve may keep raising interest rates. Meta Platforms and Tesla report Wednesday after the close, Netflix reports Tuesday, and several airlines report Thursday.
Tesla is also under scrutiny ahead of its Wednesday report, facing a safety probe into its Cybercab driverless ride-hailing service, while Netflix is planning about 1,000 job cuts. Meta’s Muse AI model and AI spending remain key areas of focus.
For crypto markets, the main read-through is risk sentiment rather than a coin-specific catalyst. No major digital asset is directly named in the earnings calendar, but broader equity and credit stress around AI infrastructure spending and interest-rate expectations can influence appetite for speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies.
