A new Reuters survey has revealed a strong consensus among economists about the Federal Reserve's near-term interest rate path. The poll, conducted between October 16 and 20, found that 94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, keeping the policy rate in the 3.75%–4.00% range.
The Fed will hold its next meeting on October 27–28, with the rate decision announced at 9:00 PM on October 28. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to hold a press conference at 9:30 PM the same day.
The most striking result of the survey is that all 100 economists questioned expect a 25 basis point interest rate increase in December. Approximately 60% of respondents believe the policy rate will peak in the 4.00%–4.25% range. Meanwhile, 38 out of 92 economists surveyed predict at least two additional interest rate hikes beyond December.
Economists point to persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target, high energy costs, and new tariffs on imports as key factors strengthening expectations for tighter monetary policy. Alex Pelle, Chief US Economist at Mizuho Bank, told Reuters that the economy is strong and inflation is rising, adding that “the Fed's decision not to raise interest rates in October was a wrong decision.”
For cryptocurrency markets, the growing expectation that the Fed may raise rates in December is being closely watched. The prospect of interest rates remaining higher for longer could strengthen the dollar and bond yields, putting pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. Investors are therefore expected to pay close attention not only to the rate decision itself, but also to Chairman Kevin Warsh's press conference on October 28.
