Binance US and Blockchain.com have formally applied to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to offer regulated prediction markets to American customers, according to filings reported on October 22, 2026.
Blockchain.com is seeking two licenses: Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Futures Commission Merchant (FCM). These would allow the company to operate a regulated futures exchange and act as a derivatives broker, clearing the way for event contracts on sports, politics, and economic outcomes, as well as crypto futures and options for retail and institutional clients in the US. CEO Peter Smith said users should be able to manage digital assets, trade derivatives, and take positions on real-world events without switching between apps.
Blockchain.com already provides prediction markets to eligible international users through Polymarket and offers perpetual futures powered by Hyperliquid. The company has also confidentially filed with the SEC for an IPO, targeting a valuation between $4 billion and $6 billion.
Binance US, operated by BAM Trading Services, is working to rebuild after years of legal and regulatory setbacks slashed its US market share. CEO Stephen Gregory said the platform planned to apply for a CFTC license in August. The company is reportedly seeking up to $100 million in funding at a valuation of about $1 billion, intends to restore state money-transmitter licenses, and will focus on lower fees as it expands beyond spot trading.
The push into prediction markets comes as spot crypto trading volumes fell 18% over the past year. Bitcoin is down 28% and ether is down 42% in the same period. By contrast, prediction market volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket jumped more than 300%, from $17 billion in January to $72 billion in September, according to The Block.
The Financial Times reported that Coinbase, Crypto.com, Gemini, and Bullish have also moved into the sector. Coinbase partnered with Kalshi, while Crypto.com spun out OG.com and sold stakes to Robinhood. However, several US states, including Michigan, are challenging prediction markets under gambling laws; Michigan regulators said this month that Coinbase agreed to stop offering event contracts to customers in the state.
Listed exchange shares have fallen sharply over the past year, with Coinbase and Bullish nearly halving in value and Gemini dropping 82%. The CFTC applications highlight how crypto exchanges are diversifying revenue streams amid prolonged market weakness and increasing regulatory scrutiny.
