Bitcoin is facing a difficult macro environment as Brent crude oil stays above the $100 per barrel level. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost has highlighted a historical relationship between strong oil trends and weaker Bitcoin momentum, noting that Bitcoin has often struggled when Brent enters a sustained uptrend and trades above its 365-day moving average. That condition is becoming relevant again, with Brent trading around $104 and its annual average beginning to turn higher after a prolonged decline.
The chart shared by CryptoQuant marks periods when Brent traded above its 365-day moving average. Several of those periods overlapped with slowing or weaker Bitcoin performance, particularly around 2018, parts of 2021–2022, and more recently in 2026. Brent has risen sharply from roughly $60–$70 earlier in the year to above $100. Bitcoin, meanwhile, remains below previous highs after losing momentum during the latest risk-asset selloff. Darkfost does not claim a direct causal link, but argues oil can serve as a signal of the broader macro environment.
Higher energy costs could push inflation expectations upward, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates. If inflation remains elevated, Treasury yields may stay high and liquidity conditions restrictive, creating a less favorable backdrop for speculative assets like Bitcoin. A temporary oil spike would likely ease macro pressure if Brent falls back below $100 and loses its annual average, but a sustained period above that level could reinforce the historical pattern and limit Bitcoin’s upside momentum.
