Bitcoin is drawing fresh long-term price scenarios from two very different models, with Elon Musk’s Grok AI outlining an extreme banking-driven rally and on-chain analyst Willy Woo publishing 10,000 simulated paths that point to a 2028 cycle top near $413,000.
The Grok scenario, dated October 26, is explicitly speculative. It assumes that in Q4 2026 the Bank for International Settlements and major central banks will classify Bitcoin as a Tier 1 high-quality liquid asset under global banking rules. That would let commercial banks hold large Bitcoin positions with favorable capital treatment, potentially creating a wave of institutional demand. Under that scenario, Grok suggests Bitcoin could reach between $650,000 and $1,200,000 by January 1, 2027, with a stretch target above $1,800,000. The article calls this pure speculation and entertainment, not a base case.
Meanwhile, Willy Woo’s simulation, posted on Monday October 26, uses a random-walk model trained on Bitcoin’s history and adjusts for shrinking cycle returns, described as a power-law degradation with c=0.45. Across 10,000 paths, the median peak sits at $413,000 in December 2028, with a 29th percentile top of $241,000 and a 10th percentile top of $116,000. Woo said the model is optimistic and that a reasonable range is between the 28th and 50th percentile, or roughly $241,000 to $413,000. He stressed: ‘It’s a simulation, NOT my prediction.’
Woo’s table also maps a median April 2030 low of $234,000 and a median February 2033 top of $1.03 million. The most bearish 10th percentile path still ends 2033 at $176,000, but it includes a 2030 low near $51,900, about 35% below the current price. The model leaves out new structural forces such as U.S. spot ETFs holding about $102.8 billion of Bitcoin, Strategy’s 848,517 BTC position, Federal Reserve rate policy, and the fact that 20.1 million of 21 million coins are already mined.
Bitcoin currently trades near $79,770, down 2.1% over the week and 36.7% below its October 2025 record around $126,080. It is hovering under the 50-day EMA at $80,765. Nearby support is $79,221, with the 200-day EMA at $76,382 below that. Resistance sits at $81,480 and then $82,850. The immediate focus is whether $79,221 holds through Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision.
