Cardano’s ADA token is testing a key support zone after retreating roughly 27% from its October high near $0.28. On October 26, ADA traded at $0.205 on the Binance ADA/USDT pair, up 0.69% intraday, with the session ranging between $0.2005 and $0.2082 and volume reaching 50.7 million ADA. Despite the minor bounce, the price remains below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages, keeping any recovery unconfirmed.
Technical setup remains bearish. The pullback has formed lower highs and lower lows inside a descending parallel channel. The daily RSI was around 36, below the neutral 50 level but above the oversold 30 threshold, while MACD remained in negative territory. Analyst Ali Charts warned that ADA could drop about 20% toward $0.166 if resistance near $0.220 holds. The former support area between $0.215 and $0.220 may now act as a barrier to any rebound.
Key Fibonacci levels are also in focus. The 50% retracement at $0.2100 sits just below the 100-day SMA at $0.2104 and the 200-day SMA at $0.2108, making that cluster an area to reclaim rather than support. Above it, the next recovery hurdles are the 38.2% retracement at $0.2270 and the 50-day SMA near $0.2304, followed by $0.248. On the downside, a daily close below $0.20 could expose $0.193 and then the $0.1687 level, close to the $0.166 target identified by the analyst.
On-chain and development signals are mixed. According to DefiLlama, declining DEX volume and stablecoin supply indicate weakening network activity. Grayscale withdrew registration for a proposed Cardano ETF in August, though the filing never became effective, so it was not an SEC rejection. The 21Shares Cardano ETP recorded around $181,450 in weekly outflows, while monthly flows remained slightly positive at about $33,740. Development continues: Praos2 has merged into the main branch, work on Leios and Endorser Block improvements is ongoing, and Node 11.2 is expected to introduce Dijkstra hard-fork features without Leios. Programmable tokens under CIP-0113 have already launched on mainnet.
