Two major fintech platforms with crypto exposure are set to report third-quarter results on Tuesday, October 27, with Wall Street watching for signs of stabilization after months of stock pressure. Robinhood Markets (HOOD) and SoFi Technologies (SOFI) enter their earnings releases against a backdrop of brokerage stock weakness, rising oil prices and heavy foreign institutional outflows.
Robinhood expectations and recent pressure
Robinhood closed at $95.07 on October 23 and was down about 1% in the latest session. The stock is down 18.4% over the past month and 16% year-to-date. Options traders are pricing in a 10.2% move in either direction after the report, equivalent to about $9.70 per share, implying a range of $85.37 to $104.77. Analysts expect earnings of $0.56 per share on revenue of $1.44 billion, compared with EPS of $0.61 a year ago and projected revenue growth of about 13%.
Robinhood has fallen after each of its last four earnings reports, with drops ranging from 3.61% to 13.24%. In July, EPS of $0.62 beat the $0.43 estimate, but the stock still fell 3.61%. Last quarter revenue was $1.31 billion, up 32.3% year over year, and the company reported 28.4 million users, up 7.2%. This quarter, revenue growth is expected to slow to between 12% and 13%, and Robinhood has missed revenue estimates several times over the past two years.
Analyst calls on Robinhood
Wells Fargo’s Daniel Welden cut his price target to $120 from $125 and kept a Hold rating, updating estimates for trading volume and assets under management. Rosenblatt’s Chris Brendler started coverage with a Buy rating and a $135 target, citing possible changes to Pattern Day Trading rules as a positive for some of Robinhood’s most valuable customers. Truist’s David Smith raised his target to $134 from $130 and kept a Buy rating, seeing more long-term value in self-directed platforms than advisor-led firms. TipRanks lists a Strong Buy consensus based on 20 Buy ratings and three Holds, with an average target of $139 implying 46% upside.
SoFi enters with bullish options but cautious analysts
SoFi traded near $14.50 on Monday, down about 1%, and is down roughly 45% this year. Wall Street expects Q3 EPS of $0.17, up about 55% from a year earlier, and revenue of about $1.25 billion, up about 30%. The decline has been tied to worries about high interest rates and pressure on the lending business.
Monness Crespi Hardt analyst Gustavo Gala initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $20 price target, implying roughly 40% upside. He views the rate reset as a largely hedged, one-time hit and notes the stock trades at 13.2x his FY28 earnings estimate. SoFi deposits total $45.5 billion, mostly from direct-deposit customers, funding lending to prime, high-income borrowers. Member count grew about 35% in Q2, while product count rose 42% to 24.4 million; existing members opened 51% of new products, up from 35% a year earlier. Gala cautioned that a possible Q3 miss could come from fair-value accounting on personal loans, calling it temporary sensitivity rather than weak fundamentals.
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Timothy Switzer kept a Sell rating and trimmed his price target to $15 from $16. He estimates rising rates and balance sheet growth created a gross headwind of more than $1 billion before hedging, likely producing a less favorable revenue mix. He still expects SoFi to meet Q3 consensus but warns about another quarter of high loan growth and further capital erosion.
Overall, Wall Street rates SoFi a Moderate Buy, with nine Buys, seven Holds and three Sells, and an average price target of $20.44, about 41.4% upside. SoFi trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 24x, compared with Robinhood at 44x. Options traders lean bullish, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.50x on contracts expiring October 30 and an upper strike price of $15.66, suggesting a possible 8% move higher by the end of the week.
Market context: Wall Street ended Friday lower, with the Dow falling 1.23% to 52,215.16 and the S&P 500 slipping 0.52%. Brent crude remained near $114 to $115 a barrel, adding to pressure on brokerage and fintech stocks.
