Bitcoin is on track for its second consecutive losing October, with the cryptocurrency down roughly 4.2% through October 25–28, according to CryptoQuant. The decline challenges the widely followed Uptober narrative and leaves BTC hovering near $81,500 after falling from around $83,600 at the end of September to about $79,200 earlier in the period.
The latest observations show that October’s weakness is not simply a price pullback. CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index has remained below zero throughout the month and dropped to minus 0.146 on October 24, the lowest reading since late June. That indicates relatively weak U.S. spot demand compared with offshore venues. The firm’s 30-day apparent demand measure also showed a shortfall of roughly 76,000 BTC by October 25, meaning buying has been insufficient to absorb available supply. CryptoQuant research head Julio Moreno noted that the Bull Score Index fell from 90 to 60, with six of ten indicators still bullish but overall conditions becoming less supportive.
ETF flows have offered a mixed signal. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $176 million on October 27, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $151.5 million and Fidelity’s FBTC with $24.5 million. However, those inflows followed about $773.5 million in combined withdrawals on October 22 and 23. The divergence between positive ETF subscriptions and negative estimated spot demand suggests that late-September ETF buying has not yet translated into a sustained recovery in CryptoQuant’s demand model.
Historically, Bitcoin gained 27.6% in October 2020, 40% in 2021, 5.5% in 2022, 28.5% in 2023 and 10.9% in 2024. It lost 3.8% in October 2025. The average October gain for 2020–2025 was about 18.1%, but seasonal patterns have not guaranteed returns. With the Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision and U.S. GDP and PCE inflation data due Thursday, traders are watching whether macro conditions can support a November rebound. CryptoQuant has highlighted the 365-day moving average near $77,585, the trader realized price around $74,041 and the 200-day moving average near $73,028 as key downside reference points if Bitcoin weakens further.
The premium of market price over the realized cost for one- to three-month holders narrowed from 33.4% on September 22 to 8.1% on October 26, leaving a smaller unrealized profit cushion. U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, adding another macro event that could influence risk appetite. For now, Bitcoin’s October performance remains negative, and any recovery in November will likely depend on stronger spot demand and improving market sentiment.
