Bitcoin traders have long joked that the return of McDonald's McRib sandwich marks a bullish signal for BTC, but analysts are pushing back. Luke Nolan, senior researcher at CoinShares, told Decrypt that there is 'no correlation at all' and that believers often ignore the times the McRib's return did not lead to gains. A CoinShares chart showed only three out of ten McRib return dates produced clear positive Bitcoin weekly closes, and several were followed by notable drops.
Carlos Guzman, vice president of research at GSR, added there is 'no causal mechanism' connecting the seasonal sandwich to crypto prices and called any apparent link a 'funny coincidence.' Nolan compared it to the Dune movie release meme, saying it can generate excitement but is 'purely coincidental' even in the best case.
The discussion arrives with Bitcoin in a 'wait and see mode' according to Bitwise Europe head of research André Dragosch. Bitcoin was trading around $79,750, down roughly 6% over the past month. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and CPI rose 0.6% that month, making the upcoming Fed rate decision on Wednesday a key focus.
Blockworks senior research analyst Jake Koch-Gallup said the Fed decision is one of three catalysts over the next two weeks, alongside a $11.69 billion Bitcoin options expiry on October 30 and the U.S. midterms on November 3. He noted that if the Fed keeps rates unchanged and ETF inflows continue, Bitcoin could break upward, while another rate hike could bring the $75,000 to $77,000 range back into play.
Despite the McRib's reappearance, market participants are looking to macro events rather than fast-food memes to determine Bitcoin's next move.
