Coinbase Global (COIN) enters its third-quarter earnings report with shares under heavy pressure, closing near $162 on Wednesday and down roughly 54% over the past 12 months. Wall Street expects a loss of 23 cents per share on about $1.21 billion in revenue, a sharp reversal from the year-ago profit of $1.50 per share and $1.87 billion in revenue. Analysts also project quarterly trading volume around $137 billion, less than half the level from a year earlier, while Bitcoin recently traded near $80,400, down from more than $122,000 last October.
Rosenblatt remains more optimistic than consensus, reiterating a Buy rating and $200 price target while raising its revenue estimate to $1.226 billion. The firm expects trading volume to fall only 4% from the prior quarter, compared with its previous estimate of a 20% drop, and points to growth in staking, fee income, derivatives, and prediction markets. Nearly half of expected third-quarter revenue is projected to come from subscriptions and services, including USDC income. Regulatory pressure remains a concern after the Clarity Act failed to advance in the Senate in September, and Street price targets range from $110 to $300.
Meanwhile, The Kobeissi Letter placed Coinbase, Circle, and Robinhood on a list of 20 tech stocks in a "stealth" bear market, with the three crypto-linked names down 56%, 44%, and 40% from their peaks, respectively. The analysis warned that 84% of S&P 500 members are at least 10% below all-time highs and 59% have dropped at least 20%. Robinhood has expanded through a Ripple partnership covering RLUSD distribution, while Circle launched its Arc blockchain in September and uses USDC for transaction fees. Coinbase also disclosed a security incident involving analytics provider Amplitude, though it said its own systems were not breached.
