Oracle stock surges 11% after AI financing cap and long-term cash flow targets

1 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Oracle's reaffirmed AI capex may lift sentiment for AI tokens FET, but concentration risk remains.
  • Oracle's negative FCF and $125B debt signal AI spending risks, possibly reducing crypto risk appetite.
  • Oracle's $225B 2030 target implies AI infrastructure growth, supporting bullish narratives for decentralized AI coins.

Oracle shares jumped more than 11% on Wednesday after the company reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 outlook and issued long-term financial targets that gave investors more clarity on returns from its artificial intelligence infrastructure spending. At its financial analyst day in Las Vegas, Oracle said it expects revenue of at least $90 billion and adjusted earnings of $8.10 per share for fiscal 2027, compared with analyst expectations of $90.45 billion and $8.14 per share.

The company also set a $225 billion revenue target for fiscal 2030, implying a compound annual growth rate of 35% between fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2030. For fiscal 2030, Oracle projected adjusted operating margins above 40% and adjusted earnings of more than $21 per share.

Oracle capped new financing at $20 billion through fiscal 2030, split evenly between $10 billion in equity and $10 billion in gross debt, excluding refinancing. CFO Hilary Maxson said free cash flow is expected to turn positive in the second half of fiscal 2028 and exceed $30 billion in fiscal 2029. Capital spending is projected to peak in fiscal 2027 and 2028 before declining in fiscal 2029, helping the company self-fund growth.

The outlook addresses investor concerns about Oracle's heavy AI data-center buildout. The company reported negative free cash flow of $23.7 billion in fiscal 2026 and another $5 billion outflow in the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Oracle had $125.34 billion in borrowings as of August 31, 2026. Its $664 billion backlog includes a reported $300 billion computing deal with OpenAI, creating reliance on a single loss-making customer.

Oracle also plans to use vendor financing, customer-supplied hardware and advance payments to reduce upfront cash requirements. Analysts note broader AI spending risks, with J.P. Morgan estimating $900 billion in global AI capital expenditure in 2026 and Bain warning of a potential $4.2 trillion annual revenue gap by 2031.

Sources
Why is Oracle stock surging 11% today?
invezz.com 28.10.2026 19:37
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