Two prominent cryptocurrency analysts are urging caution on Bitcoin (BTC) as the leading digital asset faces renewed selling pressure heading into the final months of 2026. Renowned analyst Benjamin Cowen warned that the downturn may not be over, while trader Michaël van de Poppe outlined a specific buy level he is watching if current support fails.
In a new video analysis, Cowen stated that Bitcoin is trading at very low levels according to mathematical models, but emphasized that selling pressure could continue into the last quarter of 2026. According to Cowen, Bitcoin's current price sits well below its fair value based on the long-term logarithmic regression model. He noted that Bitcoin traded in similar regions for extended periods in 2015 and 2016, which were followed by a strong surge in 2017. However, Cowen believes the current market cycle differs significantly from previous ones, lacking the exuberant rise and broad altcoin investor interest seen in prior major bull markets.
Cowen said the gap between Bitcoin's price and the levels predicted by the model has widened to an extent not seen since 2010. He stressed that low valuation does not guarantee a short-term rise: "Just because an asset appears cheap according to mathematical models doesn't mean it can't become even cheaper." He expects Bitcoin to spend the rest of the year below its fair value level and move closer to the lower boundary of the logarithmic regression channel.
The analyst also highlighted the relationship between US stock markets and Bitcoin. He attributed much of the recent sell-off to macroeconomic conditions, noting that the Nasdaq index has already declined about 10 percent from his earlier forecast of a 10 to 20 percent fall in the last quarter. Cowen argued that if the Nasdaq falls another 5 to 10 percent by year-end, Bitcoin could also be negatively affected. He added that a recent major cryptocurrency exchange attack may have accelerated Bitcoin's decline, but the downward trend began well before the attack.
From a technical perspective, Cowen said Bitcoin typically retreats quickly toward its bull market support band after making two weekly closes below the upper end of its previous trading range. He cited Bitcoin's move to the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) after two weeks of closing below its May peak. While limited losses despite stock market pressure indicated some resilience, Cowen stressed this did not rule out further declines. He noted Bitcoin has shown a tendency to bottom toward weekends, recover early in the week, and then decline again, and he believes a brief rebound before the US midterm elections could be followed by a test of lower support levels.
Echoing similar caution, analyst Michaël van de Poppe said he plans to buy Bitcoin at $75,000 if the bullish scenario breaks down. Van de Poppe cited fear ahead of Tuesday's US midterm elections as a key reason for the sell-off at the start of the week, noting that the cryptocurrency market can react strongly to political expectations. On the technical side, he said a correction occurred after the last peak was tested. The decisive factor will be whether the marked support zone can be maintained. If a higher low forms in this region and price moves upward, the outlook could strengthen. However, if support is lost, he indicated readiness to buy at the lower $75,000 level.
