Bitcoin entered early November 2026 under renewed pressure as traders and analysts examined whether the U.S. midterm elections could once again mark a significant cycle bottom. BTC was trading near $78,038 on Bitstamp on November 2, down 7.3% in October after a 3.9% decline in the same month in 2025. With the November 3 vote approaching, analysts pointed to historical patterns in which Bitcoin formed major lows after previous midterm elections.
Market analyst Ali Martinez, posting under Ali Charts, emphasized that four prior U.S. midterm elections coincided with subsequent Bitcoin corrections. Coin Bureau separately noted that Bitcoin reached cycle lows 71 days after the 2014 election, 39 days after the 2018 midterms, and 13 days after the 2022 vote. The 2022 low unfolded during the FTX collapse, while the 2015 and 2018 bottoms followed prolonged bear markets.
Technical indicators reflected weak momentum near current prices. The daily Relative Strength Index stood at 38.93 with its moving average at 43.23, both below the neutral 50 level but above the oversold 30 threshold. Bitcoin faced immediate support around $77,345 and resistance near $78,329. A sustained break below support could open a move toward $75,000, with $73,000 identified as a critical level where Bitcoin had previously encountered resistance. Analysts including Martinez and Merlijn The Trader have flagged $75,000 and $73,000 as possible buying zones during another major correction.
Beyond election results, the week's economic calendar could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations. U.S. job openings data was scheduled for November 3, the October employment report for November 6, and the October Consumer Price Index for November 10. Bitcoin's next trading week therefore combined a historical election setup with macroeconomic data that may shape risk appetite.
