XRP’s derivatives market showed renewed strength in October, but analysts caution that the token may need to revisit a historical demand zone against Bitcoin before staging another period of outperformance. According to analyst ChartNerd, XRP/BTC has repeatedly launched its strongest catch-up rallies only after returning to that lower demand area, with previous examples in 2014, 2020–2021, and 2024 before XRP’s July 2025 record run to $3.65.
Monthly XRP futures volume climbed to $68 billion in October, rebounding from an all-time low of $38 billion in July and marking an improvement from $65 billion in September. CryptoQuant data showed Binance led trading with $34.57 billion, followed by Bybit at $13.58 billion and OKX at $12.25 billion. However, spot volume remained much lower at roughly $470 million compared with futures volume around $2.7 billion, while futures open interest stood near $2.9 billion.
ChartNerd pointed to a resistance level that has rejected XRP/BTC multiple times since 2020, including during the 2021 and 2025 highs. Because the pair is still producing lower highs, he believes XRP may need another period of weakness against Bitcoin before the next meaningful rally. He added that capital may rotate into Bitcoin first if the market is emerging from a bear phase, with XRP’s strongest flows typically arriving later in the cycle.
Liquidity concerns are compounding the cautious outlook. DeFiLlama data showed XRP Ledger stablecoin capitalization fell 11.88% over 30 days to about $1.069 billion, with RLUSD accounting for roughly 91.48% of remaining supply. Much of the decline reflected Ripple USD treasury rebalancing toward Ethereum, but concentration in RLUSD leaves the network dependent on a single liquidity source. Seven-day stablecoin liquidity increased 6.91%, yet the latest daily decline kept uncertainty elevated.
At press time, XRP traded around $1.29–$1.30, with the next resistance zone between $1.33 and $1.35. CoinGecko data showed XRP near $1.25, down almost 16% over one month and 65% below its all-time high, while spot ETFs attracted just under $19 million in October for a seventh straight month of positive flows.
