Ethereum is dominating crypto market attention as two key signals point in opposite directions. According to analyst James Seyffart, the estimated cost basis for US spot Ethereum ETF positions is now just under $3,200. That level may become a reference point for institutional traders and could shape decisions as ETH's price remains well below it.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows Ethereum reserves on exchanges fell to approximately 14.5 million ETH as of November 2, the lowest since 2016. The decline from a 2020 peak of roughly 35 million ETH means about 20.5 million ETH, or 58.6%, has left tracked exchange wallets. Binance mirrors the trend: its reserves dropped to 3.08 million ETH, close to late 2020 levels and down about 1.82 million ETH, or 37.1%, from its 2025 peak of 4.9 million ETH. Binance now accounts for approximately 21.2% of total exchange reserves, while the remaining 11.42 million ETH is spread across other platforms.
Lower exchange balances do not guarantee a rally, but they reduce the amount of ETH readily available for spot selling. If buying demand returns, reduced supply on exchanges could amplify price moves. Trader Crypto Patel noted ETH is trading around $2,245 and called the zone an important decision area. Patel's preferred accumulation range is $1,800 to $1,900, where a bullish order block and fair value gap overlap, with long-term targets of $2,700, $3,200, $4,400, $6,000, and $10,000 if the setup confirms.
However, institutional flows remain weak. US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded their worst month since launch in October, with net outflows of $1.61 billion, according to SoSoValue. That exceeded the previous monthly record of $1.42 billion set last November. October had only three days of net inflows — October 13, 21, and 23 — bringing in just $24.84 million, $14.96 million, and $4.35 million respectively. Selling pressure continued into November, with another $139.8 million pulled from Ethereum ETFs on November 2.
Taken together, the data shows Ethereum at a crossroads: a decade-low exchange supply may set the stage for stronger price reactions, while persistent ETF outflows and a rough price trend continue to weigh on sentiment. Analysts are closely watching whether institutional buying can return near the $3,200 cost basis or whether deeper accumulation zones around $1,800 to $1,900 will be tested first.
