BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has reiterated that Bitcoin is likely to stay under pressure until the Federal Reserve or commercial banks begin expanding their balance sheets again. In his latest market commentary, Hayes argued that sustained strength in risky assets depends on the amount of dollar liquidity flowing through the financial system. He highlighted two main channels for Bitcoin: Federal Reserve asset purchases and credit expansion by banks.
The most recent Fed balance sheet data supports the tight-liquidity backdrop. For the week ending October 28, total assets stood at approximately $6.746 trillion, down about $8 billion from the previous week. Bank reserves held at the Fed fell by roughly $68.8 billion over the same period to $2.894 trillion.
In a separate essay titled D is for Dilution, Hayes expanded on another potential headwind: large share unlocks after the public listings of SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI. He warned that heavy selling by existing shareholders could pressure technology stocks, make lenders more cautious, slow bank credit growth and restrict dollar liquidity for Bitcoin. For Anthropic, Hayes estimated early public investors could face 83% dilution by June 2027, while SpaceX could see an additional 8.6 billion shares become eligible for trading. Assuming a $1.5 trillion valuation, he calculated that around $1.245 trillion in additional buying might be needed to absorb Anthropic's potential share supply without price declines.
Hayes said his investment firm Maelstrom intends to remain on the sidelines until liquidity conditions improve. Longer term, he remains optimistic that an AI-related financing crisis could eventually force central banks into monetary easing, which would benefit Bitcoin, reiterating his earlier view that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030. Beyond Bitcoin, Hayes named FLOP Network and Genlayer as projects he expects to benefit from cheaper computing power.
