October failed to deliver the hoped-for “Uptober” rebound, with Bitcoin closing the month down roughly 7%. Yet crypto analytics platform Santiment says investors have not capitulated. In its October report, Santiment noted that whale wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added about 91,500 BTC between September 18 and October 31, lifting their total holdings to 13.69 million BTC, or 68.1% of circulating supply. The firm cautioned that this category includes exchanges and custodians, so not all accumulation can be read as individual buying. Bitcoin investors still realized a net profit of approximately $7.86 billion, even though prices ended lower.
Ethereum diverged sharply. Santiment reported ETH investors booked a net realized loss of around $510 million in October, with 16 of the 18 days from October 14 to October 31 ending in losses. The month also brought a market-shaking security event: the $6.3 billion Binance hack, the largest crypto theft in history, exceeding the previous Bybit record of about $1.5 billion. After the attack, Bitcoin fell below $80,000 and touched $76,500. Santiment found that hack-related posts peaked at 2,995 on October 30, nearly double the 1,532 peak seen during the Bybit incident.
Analysts at The DeFi Report argued that Bitcoin’s ability to hold critical support despite the Binance attack is a bull-market signal. Analyst Mike said a similar event in previous cycles could have triggered a correction of up to 20%, but Bitcoin fell only about 5%. He highlighted the 50-week moving average at roughly $75,900, which was tested twice but not permanently lost; Bitcoin recovered to around $80,000 at the time of analysis. Mike also noted that investors who bought between $78,000 and $92,000 control about 18% of supply, and an estimated 90% of selling pressure from buyers above $92,000 and $108,000 may have subsided.
Looking ahead, The DeFi Report sees $87,000 as the first major resistance, with $94,000–$95,000 as the next target if that level breaks. Mike does not expect an immediate rally and sees Bitcoin potentially moving sideways for six to nine months, possibly into the first half of 2027, with a new all-time high unlikely in the rest of 2026 or Q1 2027 in his base case. Still, he said sentiment may be overly pessimistic and an earlier break above $87,000 could surprise investors. On altcoins, only about 8% of the top 50 outperformed BTC over the last 30 days, but some altcoins outperforming after the attack suggests selling pressure may be easing.
ETF and macro data remain mixed. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw significant outflows after the hack, though six-week net flows were roughly balanced. Ethereum ETF outflows continued for about 25 days, but ETH’s relative resilience was viewed positively. Stablecoin supply fell to its lowest level in the past year, suggesting no strong liquidity expansion yet. Mike said credit risk premiums tied to AI funding concerns are worth watching, but bank lending has not deteriorated significantly, supporting a possible recovery if credit conditions do not tighten.
