Spot gold extended its recovery on Thursday, trading at $4,134.83 an ounce at 03:16 GMT, up almost 2% and the highest level since 22 October. December COMEX futures followed at $4,144.20, up 1.8%. The move followed Wednesday’s 3.47% jump, gold’s biggest one-day gain since 19 August, after Democrats won both chambers of Congress and the US dollar index fell to about 101.3, a one-month low.
The rally is being driven by a falling dollar and lower Treasury yields rather than fear, with gold rising alongside stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield finished near 4.88%, while Brent crude lost close to 9% on bets that Washington and Tehran are moving toward a settlement. That has lowered the inflation outlook that had kept the Federal Reserve leaning toward a hike.
Attention now turns to Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls report at 8:30 a.m. ET. A Reuters poll expects 65,000 jobs after 29,000 in September, with unemployment at 4.2%. ADP counted 86,000 private jobs in October, above the 67,000 consensus, which analysts said reinforced expectations that the Fed still has room to raise rates. CME FedWatch puts the chance of a December rate hike at 79% to 82% ahead of the Fed’s 8-9 December meeting.
Analysts at XS.com see a potential move toward $4,200 and then $4,400 if gold holds above $4,000. Citi has a 0-3 month target of $4,500 and a 6-12 month target of $5,000, while State Street’s 12-month base case is $4,500 to $5,250. Key technical levels are support near $4,065 and $4,000, with resistance at $4,187 to $4,227.
For cryptocurrency markets, the macro backdrop of a weaker dollar and falling yields is generally supportive for risk assets, but no specific digital asset is directly referenced in the gold-focused news. Friday’s payrolls print remains the main catalyst: a strong number could lift the dollar and hike odds, while a weak report may extend the current risk-on move.
