Riot Surges on $28B AI Lease as Cipher Sinks After Texas Election Upset

2 hour ago 2 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • Riot’s Anthropic lease signals miners are monetizing power assets beyond volatile Bitcoin mining revenue.
  • Riot’s $1.5B BTC sales may add supply pressure but fund a structural AI infrastructure pivot.
  • Cipher’s Texas selloff and Hut 8’s bonds show regulatory and execution risks repricing AI miners.

Riot Platforms shares rallied about 14% to $15.49 on Wednesday, adding to an 18.41% jump Tuesday after the company disclosed a 15-year, $28 billion AI data center lease covering 910 megawatts at its Corsicana, Texas campus. The tenant, identified as Anthropic in Riot's quarterly filing, will own and operate computing equipment and pay operating costs, while Riot supplies land, powered pads, and electrical infrastructure. Average annual rent is estimated at $1.8 billion, with total capital requirements around $5.5 billion. Riot expects to deliver 400 MW by September 2027, 200 MW by January 2028, and the remaining 310 MW by July 2028, with rent starting within 60 days of each delivery.

The Corsicana lease lifts Riot's total leased capacity to 1,151 MW and about $38 billion in contracted revenue across three leases signed this year. CEO Jason Les said cash flow is shifting from Bitcoin price exposure to long-term leases, and Bitcoin mining at Corsicana could begin winding down in summer 2027. Riot sold 10,599 BTC in the third quarter, cutting its bitcoin holdings from 11,380 BTC to 2,418 BTC; since the start of 2026 it has sold 20,264 BTC worth about $1.5 billion, mostly to fund data center construction. Q3 revenue rose 1% to $181.4 million, but net income fell to $4.03 million from $104.5 million a year earlier. Mining revenue slid nearly 28% to $116 million, while data center operations contributed $18.4 million and engineering added $47 million.

Meanwhile, Cipher Digital shares tumbled nearly 19% to about $6.60 after Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated incumbent Greg Abbott in the Texas governor's race. Hinojosa campaigned on an immediate moratorium on new data centers until lawmakers adopt community protections and give residents more control over development. CIFR traded as low as $6.18 during the session, a decline of more than 20%. Cipher had reported its first high-performance computing lease revenue of $5.852 million on Nov. 2, alongside quarterly revenue of $26.7 million. Bitcoin mining contributed $20.849 million, down from $71.707 million a year earlier. The company posted a $71.9 million operating loss, but a $127.2 million warrant valuation gain produced net income of $31.6 million.

Hut 8 also faced selling pressure, falling as much as 22% after revenue declined 15% to $71.1 million, missing analyst estimates of $75.8 million. CFO Sean Glennan attributed the miss to asset sales and lower revenue per Bitcoin mined. Hut 8 said it has lined up $7.5 billion in project bonds to fund two AI data center projects, though neither is producing lease revenue yet. Texas had already restricted data center development under Abbott, whose September directive ordered a permitting halt pending audits and required projects to cover electrical infrastructure costs and report electricity and water use.

Previously on the topic:
yesterday / 16:34
Riot Moves Bitcoin Custody to BitGo, BTC Reclaims $80K
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