Institutional investors are pressing Anthropic to sharply lower its expected initial public offering valuation, with reports indicating the AI company could price closer to $1 trillion rather than the $1.5 trillion target cited before a broad AI-led equity selloff.
The Wall Street Journal reported that three major investors who attended Anthropic’s San Francisco presentations now expect the valuation to come down, and one sees pricing near $1 trillion. That would still rank among the largest technology IPOs, but marks a major markdown from the roughly $2 trillion figure circulated as recently as September.
Doubts are also mounting over the November timeline. Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter, said investors question whether Anthropic can stick to its planned roadshow and listing after the S&P 500 fell 4.4% on November 5, the Nasdaq Composite entered correction territory, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its second-largest single-day decline on record.
Anthropic's S-1 registration, filed with the SEC on October 26, still leaves share count, price range and listing date blank. An amended S-1/A filed November 2 added third-quarter revenue of $16.96 billion, up 1,127% year over year and 47% from the second quarter’s $11.6 billion. The quarterly operating loss was $567 million. Some investors have flagged the missing October run-rate revenue line as a concern because it obscures the most recent growth trend.
Anthropic now faces a narrowing set of choices: proceed next week and accept whatever valuation a risk-off market assigns, delay by days or weeks in hopes that equities stabilize, or postpone into 2027 and update the filing with full-year financials. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead the 22-bank underwriting syndicate, and the proposed Nasdaq Global Select Market listing would trade under the ticker ANT. Anthropic's last private valuation was $965 billion, set in its May 2026 Series H round that raised $65 billion.
The timing matters beyond Anthropic. SpaceX raised $85.7 billion in its June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, while OpenAI ruled out a 2026 IPO. If Anthropic prices below expectations or trades down in its first week, other AI companies waiting in the pipeline could delay further.
Prediction markets reflect the shifting expectations. On Polymarket, the odds that Anthropic lists by November 20 stood at 43% on Friday, while the chance of a listing by the end of the year was 71%. On Kalshi, odds for confirmation before December 1 slipped to 59%.
The AI stock rout followed the U.S. midterms, as investors weighed possible Democratic scrutiny of data center construction. The S&P 500 closed down 4.4%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.3%, the Philadelphia semiconductor index slid 12.3%, and Nvidia dropped 9.2%. Stocks partly recovered Friday morning.
Analysts say a delay is an escalating risk. Richard Windsor called a postponement protective against near-term valuation risks, while PitchBook’s Nalin Patel said a delay would be more likely if the correction sustains. Investors also note Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate topped $80 billion at the end of October, with cash of $146.6 billion as of September 30.
