Bitcoin remains caught between conflicting cycle signals as analyst CryptoCon argues the current bear market may be nearing its end in time, while MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor says Bitcoin is at the start of a 2-to-3-year bull market.
CryptoCon's Quartercent Cycles Theory, based on long-term S&P 500 turning points, positions the market after the 2024 high and before another major peak around 2028. He sees the latest stock-market weakness as a correction within a larger cycle, not the start of a multi-year collapse. The Nasdaq fell 5.5% on Thursday, its worst session in 19 months, wiping roughly $2.5 trillion in market value as investors dumped crowded AI trades. CryptoCon says that volatility does not break the longer cycle yet.
For Bitcoin, he says the bear market is "finally nearing its end in time," with potentially only a few months remaining. He emphasizes this is about time, not necessarily price: Bitcoin could still fall, retest lows, or trade sideways before the cycle window expires. Confirmation would require Bitcoin to hold higher lows while risk appetite stabilizes.
Separately, Michael Saylor said during MicroStrategy’s Q3 2026 earnings call that Bitcoin is entering a bull market that could last two to three years. He noted a rebound from Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average after about a year in a bear market. Supporting that view, Bitcoin’s market dominance has reportedly risen to around 67%, and roughly $6.3 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs during the third quarter of 2026. Saylor also said new Bitcoin supply could be absorbed by digital credit and bank lending, while the upcoming 2028 halving may draw more attention to supply dynamics.
The two views differ on timing: CryptoCon still sees months of possible pressure, while Saylor is describing an early bull phase. Together they highlight a market transitioning from bearish exhaustion to renewed institutional interest, but still vulnerable to broader risk-off moves in technology and AI-related equities.
