Bitcoin (BTC) has surged past $120,000 for the first time since mid-August, driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, institutional inflows, and a significant shift in holder behavior. According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant and Glassnode, long-term holders (LTHs)—those holding BTC for 18 months to two years—are increasingly retaining their assets, signaling growing conviction in Bitcoin's long-term value. This trend aligns with the historic approval of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, which has bolstered investor confidence beyond mere necessity.
Key metrics indicate a cooling of speculative excess, with the Short-Term Holder Realized Value (RVT) ratio compressing since May, reflecting reduced profit-taking by short-term traders. Meanwhile, the Long-Term Holder Net Position Change has shifted to neutral territory, suggesting that profit-taking pressure is tapering off. This has allowed institutional inflows, such as nearly $1 billion into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in late September and BlackRock's fund surpassing $80 billion in assets, to dominate near-term momentum.
External factors, including a U.S. government shutdown, weak economic data like job losses, and a clarifying Treasury policy that exempts unrealized Bitcoin gains from corporate taxes, have further enhanced Bitcoin's appeal as an alternative asset. Technically, BTC is up 1.3% in 24 hours, nearly 10% weekly, 8% monthly, and 96% year-on-year, with analysts forecasting potential highs of $150,000 by late October or early November if the current pattern holds, though volatility is expected to persist.