Bitcoin (BTC) set a new record on October 3, clearing its previous peak of $123,731.21 and establishing a fresh high for the current cycle. This move followed a steady October grind that accelerated as macro and flow tailwinds aligned, with the spot market showing constructive tone. Bitcoin reclaimed the $120,000 threshold on October 2 as risk appetite improved amid a US government shutdown backdrop.
The shutdown has proven additive for Bitcoin by interrupting key federal economic data, such as the monthly jobs report, muddying visibility for policymakers and markets. With official readings dark, investors are relying on weaker private-sector signals, which increase the odds of additional Federal Reserve easing on October 29. This backdrop typically supports risk assets and hard-asset hedges like BTC.
Demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has reaccelerated, with funds recording $1.3 billion in net flows between October 1 and 2, helping absorb supply and reinforcing dip-buying behavior. Macro factors are pulling in the same direction; the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points on September 17, and markets now ascribe high odds to another cut this month, easing financial conditions that favor risk assets and crypto.
Options positioning may also aid momentum, as a record quarterly expiry last week reset risk and opened room for upside, with heavy call interest clustered between $115,000 and $125,000 strikes. October has historically been Bitcoin's strongest month, with an 83% win rate over the last 12 years, and this year's 'Uptober' is driven by investor sentiment, capital flows, and macro catalysts. On-chain metrics like the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and MVRV ratio indicate strengthening conviction, while declining exchange balances point to structural accumulation.
Historical data suggests potential for further gains, with researcher Bull Theory predicting a rally to nearly $143,000, supported by an average October gain of 20.62%. The Decode Macro Trend Oscillator (MTO) has signaled this breakout since May, with confirmation in September and ongoing momentum in October.