Standard Chartered: Bitcoin Could Permanently Stay Above $100,000 If Key Events Unfold Positively

Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that Bitcoin (BTC) may not fall below $100,000 again if positive developments in global markets continue. He emphasized that progress in US-China trade talks has shifted market fear to hope, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating a one-year postponement of restrictions on China's rare earth exports and expectations for Beijing to purchase large quantities of US soybeans. This agreement is set to be formalized after the Donald Trump-Xi Jinping summit in South Korea on Thursday.

The easing tensions have boosted optimism in risk markets, with the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio rising above pre-October 10 levels. Kendrick noted, "If this ratio rises above 30 again, it would signal the end of the period of fear in the markets." This ratio measures Bitcoin's market value relative to gold, and an increase favors Bitcoin, indicating rising risk appetite.

Further confirmation of Bitcoin's strength would come from new inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Kendrick highlighted that $2 billion flowed out of US gold ETFs between Wednesday and Friday last week, and if even half of that money returns to Bitcoin ETFs this week, it would be a strong positive signal. He argued that Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high would be the "ultimate confirmation," challenging the notion that Bitcoin's price is driven by the halving cycle. "I believe the halving cycle is no longer important, and ETF inflows are much more decisive," Kendrick stated.

Additionally, a 25 basis point interest rate cut is expected at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, which would be positive for Bitcoin. This week, major tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, Google, Apple, and Amazon, as well as crypto firms such as Coinbase and Strategy, are set to release financial results, potentially influencing overall market sentiment.

Kendrick concluded with a bold assessment: "If this week goes well, Bitcoin may never fall below $100,000 again."