A prominent crypto analyst, Crypto AiMan, has issued a warning to Hedera (HBAR) holders, arguing that many are selling at a historically inopportune time driven by fear rather than fundamentals. In a video to his substantial YouTube following, he contends that the market's expectation of a prolonged bear phase similar to the post-2021 cycle is fueling emotional selling, despite a broader setup he views as different from past cycles.
The core of his technical argument hinges on HBAR's long-term Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is sitting at historically low levels. AiMan notes that HBAR's RSI has only been this low three times in its history: around its launch, during the depths of the 2022 FTX collapse bear market, and in mid-2024 just before a massive price surge from $0.04 to nearly $0.40. He interprets these extreme RSI lows as a sign that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion, marking a period of potential accumulation rather than distribution where downside risk is limited and upside potential increases.
This technical perspective is reinforced by independent price analysis showing HBAR is successfully defending the critical 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support level around $0.10. The price has tested this level multiple times without breaking lower, with daily closes above it indicating sustained demand. Analysts note that this behavior, combined with increasing bullish volume, signals seller exhaustion and the early stages of a potential structural transition from a corrective phase.
For the bullish scenario to be confirmed, HBAR needs to form a higher low above the $0.10 support zone and then rotate toward the next major resistance at $0.14. A move to this level would establish a higher high, confirming a full market structure shift into a new accumulation cycle. Beyond charts, AiMan points to broader tailwinds for Hedera in 2026, including rising real-world asset tokenization, growing developer activity, increased institutional involvement, and favorable macro factors like potential interest rate cuts.
The overarching message from analysts is that extreme fear often appears near important market turning points. Selling at these historically oversold levels has not been profitable for HBAR holders in the past, and current technicals suggest patience may be more rewarding than a panic-driven reaction.
