Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, founder of Binance, has ignited bullish sentiment by suggesting Bitcoin could be entering a "super cycle" following a significant regulatory signal from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The catalyst was the SEC's release of its 2026 examination priority risk list, which notably omitted cryptocurrency as a dedicated inspection focus for the first time in years. "I could be wrong, but Super Cycle incoming," Zhao wrote on X, framing the omission as more than procedural and indicative of a cooling regulatory intensity that could ease persistent pressure on the market.
Zhao linked this regulatory shift to changing market structure, highlighting a divergence where U.S. institutional players are increasing exposure while retail investors pull back. He pointed to recent filings showing Wells Fargo purchased approximately $383 million in Bitcoin ETF shares and Morgan Stanley filed documentation related to a Bitcoin ETF, which Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas linked to rising demand from wealth management clients.
Contrasting this bullish long-term view, global investment firm VanEck released a more cautious Q1 2026 outlook. While predicting a "risk-on" environment for investors due to improved fiscal visibility and monetary policy clarity, VanEck expressed specific reservations about Bitcoin's near-term trajectory. The firm noted that Bitcoin's typical four-year cycle broke in 2025, supporting a more cautious 3-6 month outlook. VanEck CEO Jan van Eck grouped digital assets with AI, gold, and India as sectors that have "reset into more compelling investment opportunities."
Market analysts provided additional context. Justin d’Anethan of Arctic Digital noted Bitcoin is rising in a low-leverage environment, suggesting much of 2025's excess has been removed. HashKey Group's Tim Sun stated that with US midterm elections approaching, fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary conditions, and favorable regulatory developments collectively form a risk-on macroeconomic window for the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicted that if Bitcoin clearly breaks above $92,000, it could reclaim $100,000 within ten days. Bitcoin was trading around $92,000 at the time of the reports.
