US President Donald Trump has confirmed the arrest and jailing of an individual who leaked information about a US-led attack on Venezuela prior to the event. The announcement has intensified scrutiny of blockchain-based prediction markets, where suspiciously well-timed bets were placed.
According to a video from The Wall Street Journal, Trump stated in the Oval Office, "The leaker on Venezuela has been found and is in jail right now." He added that authorities are searching for other potential accomplices. This follows an incident on January 3, 2026, where US forces attacked Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro.
Blockchain security firm Lookonchain had earlier identified three wallets on the prediction platform Polymarket that placed bets predicting Maduro would be out of office just hours before the news became public. The wallets, which had no prior betting history and were pre-funded days in advance, netted total profits exceeding $630,480. Lookonchain labeled this a clear case of insider trading, suggesting the bettors had foreknowledge of the classified operation.
The specific wallet profits were: wallet 0x31a5 turned $34,000 into $409,900; wallet 0xa72D turned $5,800 into $75,000; and wallet SBet365 turned $25,000 into $145,600.
In a new development, Lookonchain reported that two of the three wallets (0x31a5 and 0xa72D) have been inactive for 11 days since cashing out. However, the remaining wallet, SBet365, placed a new bet two days ago, wagering $4,000 that Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be out of office by January 31, 2026. This bet comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, raising fresh concerns about potential insider information leaks.
The incident has fueled ongoing regulatory debates. Sean Patrick Maloney, president of the Coalition for Prediction Markets, emphasized the need for clear regulation, stating that offshore, unregistered platforms should not operate in the US without the same safeguards as federally regulated ones. US lawmakers are also pushing a bill to combat insider trading on political wagers.
