Intel Corporation's stock (INTC) rallied sharply ahead of its Q4 2026 earnings report, buoyed by a wave of analyst upgrades citing renewed optimism around server CPU demand driven by artificial intelligence (AI) workloads and progress in its foundry business. The stock traded near $47.87, up 1.86% during market hours on January 20, and surged over 6% on January 21 as markets opened.
Two major analyst firms revised their outlooks. HSBC analyst Frank Lee upgraded Intel from "Reduce" to "Hold," doubling his price target to $50. Lee's bullish call hinges on expectations that server shipments could rise 15% to 20% this year. He argues that the rise of "agentic AI" systems, capable of autonomous decision-making, is creating incremental demand for traditional servers, as many AI applications still rely heavily on general-purpose compute from CPUs.
Seaport Research Partners took an even more optimistic stance, upgrading Intel to "Buy" with a $65 price target. Analyst Jay Goldberg cited strong PC sales signals and an improving outlook for Intel's manufacturing strategy. He believes Intel is positioned to retake market share in both enterprise and consumer segments in 2026.
The upgrades reflect a broader reassessment of Intel's prospects after years of market share losses and execution challenges. KeyBanc analyst John Vinh added to the positive sentiment, noting that Intel has "almost completely sold out" of its server processor supply through 2026 due to unprecedented hyperscaler demand driven by AI. This tight supply has reportedly given Intel pricing power, with considerations for average selling price increases of 10% to 15% on server processors.
Investor focus now shifts to Intel's upcoming quarterly earnings report. Consensus estimates are modest, forecasting revenue of $13.4 billion (a 6% year-on-year decline) and earnings of $0.08 per share. Analysts, including Bank of America's Vivek Arya, expect in-line or slightly better-than-expected Q4 sales and gross margins. Any upside surprise in margins, guidance, or commentary on the foundry business could reinforce the recent optimism.
The stock's performance underscores the shifting narrative. Intel shares are up 23% year-to-date in 2026 and have climbed 123% over the past 12 months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500.
