Bitcoin's market dynamics are presenting conflicting signals as large-scale accumulation by new whales contrasts with weakening momentum indicators. According to CryptoQuant data, the realized cap for new Bitcoin whale wallets has surged dramatically, approaching approximately $120 billion as of early 2026. This metric, which tracks the aggregate cost basis of coins held by new large investors, remained relatively flat until 2021, grew slowly through 2022-2023, and then began a sharp ascent in 2024.
The acceleration intensified through 2025, with the new whale realized cap curve turning nearly vertical, ending close to the top of its historical range. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's spot price advanced more gradually, trading sideways in the 80K to 100K zone before experiencing a slight dip at the end of the period. This creates a widening gap between the rapidly increasing cost basis of newer large holders and the more modest price appreciation.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin's technical momentum is weakening. A weekly chart shared by analyst Nexus shows Bitcoin sliding to around $82,550 on Coinbase, representing a weekly drop of approximately 12.35% from an open near $94,182. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen toward the lower end of its multi-year range, reaching one of the lowest readings on record. Nexus highlighted that similar RSI troughs occurred during prior major drawdowns, including the 2018 bear market bottom, the COVID-era bottom, and the 2022 low near $18,000.
Additional data from Santiment reveals continued whale activity amid the uncertainty. Wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC added 104,340 coins (a 1.5% increase) in recent periods, bringing their total holdings to 7.17 million BTC—the highest level since September 15, 2025. Whale confidence is further evidenced by a two-month high in transfers exceeding $1 million, suggesting these large investors are positioning for future opportunities rather than exiting the market.
However, other market indicators paint a more cautious picture. Analyst EgyHash notes that Bitcoin's demand chart has turned negative in January 2026 after showing strong buying in mid-2025, indicating long-term holders are selling faster than new buyers are accumulating. Furthermore, the year-over-year whale holdings chart shows large investors beginning to reduce their Bitcoin exposure, a pattern historically associated with market pullbacks. Medium-to-large investors ('dolphins') have also shifted from accumulation to profit-taking.
The Coinbase Premium Index remains deeply negative, signaling weak institutional demand from the U.S. market. "All four indicators are currently showing a bearish convergence," EgyHash emphasized, noting that selling pressure from both whales and dolphins is contributing to Bitcoin's price dip to the $89,400 range. This creates a mixed market environment where substantial whale accumulation coexists with concerning momentum and demand metrics.
