The cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin (BTC), faces a prolonged bear phase with analysts from major firms warning that the recent decline from all-time highs may not be over. Bitcoin reached its peak of $126,000 in early October 2026, only to experience a historic crash on October 10th, plunging the asset into a sustained downtrend that recently tested the $60,000 support level.
Despite some market participants believing $60,000 could mark the bottom, prominent figures and research firms are painting a bleaker picture. Michael Terpin, CEO of Transform Ventures, speaking at the Consensus Hong Kong 2026 conference, stated that Bitcoin is following its historical four-year halving cycle "almost exactly." He argued that the market is "exactly where we need to be" in this cycle and that predictions of a bottom at $80,000 or $60,000 are premature. Terpin suggested Bitcoin could still fall to levels between $50,000 and $40,000 before a true bear market bottom is formed.
Echoing this cyclical analysis, Wolfe Research issued a stark warning in its latest report. The firm's analysts noted that Bitcoin has already fallen more than 50% from its October peak. Drawing on historical patterns, they pointed out that past four-year bear market cycles have seen an average decline of 75%. Should this pattern hold, Bitcoin's price could potentially drop to around $30,000.
Both analyses highlight that the macroeconomic, political, and regulatory pressures that triggered the initial sell-off are persisting, offering no near-term relief. Wolfe Research specifically warned that recent price rallies may be temporary, as ongoing geopolitical and economic tensions continue to pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets. Terpin drew a parallel to the previous cycle, noting the peak on November 10, 2021, was followed by a trough exactly one year later after the FTX bankruptcy, suggesting the current downturn could also be prolonged.
