Coinbase Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates as Trading Revenue Dips Below $1 Billion

yesterday / 21:47 9 sources neutral

Key takeaways:

  • COIN's revenue miss signals ongoing crypto market headwinds, pressuring exchange earnings.
  • Declining transaction revenue highlights investor caution, potentially limiting near-term upside for COIN.
  • Watch for subscription revenue resilience as a key indicator of Coinbase's diversification success.

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) reported its fourth-quarter financial results, falling short of analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings. The U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange posted total revenue of $1.78 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $1.83 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.66, significantly below the anticipated $0.86.

A key driver of the miss was a decline in transaction revenue, which totaled $983 million for the quarter. This figure was below the forecast of $1.02 billion and represents a sequential drop from $1.046 billion in Q3 2025 and a substantial year-over-year decrease from $1.556 billion in Q4 2024. Subscription and services revenue also saw a slight quarter-over-quarter dip to $727.4 million from $746.7 million, though it increased from $641.1 million a year earlier.

The company attributed the weaker performance to "weaker trading activity and lower crypto asset prices" during the period. For the current first quarter, Coinbase provided guidance, noting transaction revenue of approximately $420 million through February 10 and projecting subscription revenue between $550 million and $630 million for the full quarter.

Despite the quarterly miss, Coinbase expressed long-term optimism. "We continue to be optimistic about the long-term trajectory of the crypto industry," the company stated. "Crypto is cyclical, and experience tells us it’s never as good, or as bad as it seems. While asset prices can be volatile, under the surface an undercurrent of technological change and crypto product adoption continues."

Following the earnings release, COIN shares saw a modest increase in after-hours trading, partially recovering from a 7.9% drop during the regular session. The stock has declined approximately 40% year-to-date.

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