Analysts are examining historical patterns to predict Bitcoin's potential cycle bottom, with a prominent model suggesting a low could be reached around October 2026. According to an analysis shared by Crypto Rover, Bitcoin's price action is beginning to resemble prior fractal structures that historically concluded with an October low. The model, labeled the "Bitcoin: Repetition Fractal Cycle," outlines recurring four-year cycles consisting of accumulation, markup, distribution, and bear market phases.
The fractal framework divides Bitcoin's history into repeating arcs. In past cycles, major bottoms aligned with the transition from a bear market to an accumulation phase, often forming several months after the cycle top. The current projection places the potential bottom window in October, consistent with the resolution of previous cycles. The reasoning is timing-based; past bottoms did not occur immediately after sharp corrections but followed periods of distribution and structural deterioration.
Separately, analyst EGRAG Crypto highlights that Bitcoin has entered its fourth consecutive red monthly candle, a pattern seen in prior structured sequences. Historical cycles show Bitcoin rarely bottoms instantly after the first wave of downside. Instead, it typically moves through compression, liquidity flushes, temporary relief rallies, and then prints the final low.
The current absence of a meaningful relief bounce is key. The most probable path forward, according to EGRAG Crypto, is for the fourth red month to complete, followed by a short relief bounce. Then, one final red leg—a fifth or sixth red month—would form the true cycle bottom, mirroring behavior seen in historical Cycles A and C.
Analysts caution that fractal models are not predictive guarantees, as market maturity, increased institutional participation, and evolved derivatives markets can alter timing dynamics. Confirmation of a bottom would require a slowdown in downside momentum, reduced liquidation pressure, stabilization in realized losses, and sustained accumulation behavior.
