Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at cryptocurrency analytics firm K33 Research, has published a comprehensive analysis refuting the long-held market narrative of a systematic Bitcoin sell-off at 10:00 AM Eastern Time. The study examined over 606,000 minutes of data between January 1, 2025, and February 26, 2026.
The data shows Bitcoin's average minute return at 10:00 AM ET was 0.207 basis points, placing it in the upper quartile of the strongest intraday timeframes and making it the 359th strongest minute of the day. This performance contradicts the popular thesis that a coordinated price drop occurs daily at that hour, which had been speculated to be linked to market maker activity or ETF flows.
However, the analysis revealed a more nuanced picture over a shorter, more recent period from November 1, 2025, to February 26, 2026. During this window, the average 10:00 AM return dropped to -1.41 basis points, ranking it as the 35th worst minute of the day. Negative returns were observed at that time on 53.85% of the days examined. Lunde acknowledged this short-term sample shows 10:00 AM as a "negative outlier" but stated it is insufficient evidence of market manipulation.
When examining wider time windows around 10:00 AM, the returns appear more balanced. The study found the clearest correlation is between Bitcoin volatility and US market activity. Volatility intensifies significantly during US trading hours, peaking in the minutes immediately following the US stock market open (09:31–09:37 ET). This indicates Bitcoin's market microstructure is closely tied to traditional US finance, rather than being driven by manipulation at a specific clock time.
In a related but separate discussion, analyst 0xNobler highlighted a large position held by trading firm Jane Street in the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), worth approximately $1.6 billion. The post suggested such large-scale paper flow in commodity ETFs could create engineered-looking price moves, though it does not constitute proof of manipulation. This narrative parallels concerns sometimes voiced in crypto markets about the influence of major trading firms.
