Prominent market analysts are pointing to emerging technical and behavioral signals suggesting that Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market may be forming a bottom after a prolonged downturn. Tom Lee, head of BitMine and co-founder of Fundstrat, stated in a CNBC interview that approximately 90% of the decline in major tech stocks and cryptocurrencies may be over. He highlighted the market's unexpected resilience despite geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties, noting that risky assets are beginning to show strength again.
"No one wants to see the US get into a conflict. However, it's worth noting that the market has performed much more strongly than expected," Lee said. While he cautioned it's not yet definitive, he observed a pattern similar to a bottom formation emerging, with March potentially being a key period for this process.
Separately, analysts at crypto research firm K33 published a report drawing parallels between current market conditions and the period surrounding the collapse of FTX in 2022, which marked a historic bottom. K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde noted that Bitcoin's weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently fell to 26.84, its lowest level since July 2022, indicating severely oversold conditions. Furthermore, Bitcoin recorded back-to-back days with trading volumes exceeding 95% of all-time highs—a phenomenon last seen when FTX filed for bankruptcy.
Lunde also pointed to derivatives markets, where participants are paying a significant premium for bearish bets in perpetual futures, and options skews have jumped to levels last seen during the collapses of FTX and Terra. "The worst is behind us; now we wait," the K33 analysts wrote, adding that bottoming regimes are typically slow and require patience. Lunde described the current defensive market posture as "atypical" and historically associated with global bottoms, concluding, "Bitcoin has a tendency to do the unexpected."
