Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has outlined a long-term case for Bitcoin reaching a $1 million valuation, driven by its potential to capture a larger share of the growing global store-of-value market. Currently, Bitcoin holds less than 4% of an estimated $38 trillion market, which is dominated by gold. Hougan argues that if the total store-of-value market expands to $121 trillion and Bitcoin secures a 17% share, a $1 million price per BTC becomes achievable.
Hougan's analysis marks a shift from his earlier skepticism during Bitcoin's 2018 bear market. He now views Bitcoin primarily as a digital store of value, a narrative gaining traction amid concerns over rising government debt, geopolitical instability, and loose monetary policy. However, he acknowledges risks, including potential slowdowns in market growth, easing macroeconomic pressures that could shrink the store-of-value pie, and the need for continued investor adoption to increase Bitcoin's market share meaningfully.
Concurrently, a specific macro-technical indicator is flashing a bullish signal for Bitcoin's price in the nearer term. The signal, highlighted by crypto analyst AO, uses a Stochastic RSI applied to the product of US and Chinese 10-year government bond yields. This "Yield Product" oscillator aims to gauge global liquidity conditions impacting risk assets like Bitcoin.
Historically, this indicator's bullish crossover from oversold territory has preceded major Bitcoin rallies, including the 8,700% surge in 2013, the 1,900% gain in 2017, and the 600% appreciation in the 2020–2021 cycle. The recent signal suggests Bitcoin may be forming a cycle bottom, with a technical target pointing toward $100,000.
For this bullish thesis to hold, Bitcoin must defend the critical support zone between $60,000 and $63,000. A break above immediate resistance at $72,000-$74,000 would serve as initial confirmation. The outlook is supported by stabilizing inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which could help absorb post-halving miner supply and catalyze the move toward the six-figure target.
