Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten has significantly lowered the probability of Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high in 2026, citing persistent retail-driven demand and heavy outflows from US spot ETFs. Speaking at BitcoinVegas 2026, Klippsten highlighted that despite the narrative of institutional dominance, individual investors remain the backbone of Bitcoin purchasing.
“You have to remember it’s not like BlackRock owns the Bitcoin and Fidelity owns the Bitcoin. It’s a bunch of retail accounts mostly that actually buy that,” he told Cointelegraph. He stressed that even when wrapped in ETFs, the demand is genuine because issuers must buy and custody actual Bitcoin, draining real supply from the market. However, he cautioned that instruments like futures contracts can inflate the “paper supply,” weakening the link to Bitcoin’s core value as a scarce on-chain asset.
The outlook turned markedly more cautious after Bitcoin’s price dropped from around $95,000 earlier this year to the $60,000 range. Klippsten now sees only a 20–25% chance of a new record in 2026, down from an earlier 50% estimate. The weakening sentiment is reflected in market data: US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net outflow of approximately $2.9 billion since May 15, while Bitcoin’s price lost about 9.5% over the same period. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered an “Extreme Fear” reading of 23, signaling deep caution among investors. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $73,630, down 2.87% over the past 30 days.
