Grayscale Research argues Bitcoin could enter a recovery phase in coming months, but a lasting bottom requires new buyers. The sell-off by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) of just 32 BTC triggered volatility, but the real concern is the pressure on its variable-rate preferred stock, STRC, and the potential for further sales if dividend yields need to rise. Grayscale notes that Strategy's leveraged model is under strain, but long-term, a healthier distribution of Bitcoin across institutional balance sheets would be positive.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, outlined three specific conditions that could push Bitcoin to new lows: accelerating ETF outflows, a hawkish Fed surprise from June/July meetings, and Bitcoin dominance breaking below the 52-54% range. With ETF outflows at historic levels and Bitcoin testing its 200-week moving average, Kendrick remains constructive for year-end, reiterating a $100,000 target.
The contrasting views highlight the fragile sentiment as Bitcoin trades near $62,562, with macro forces and institutional flows holding the keys to the next major move.
