Gold prices surged on Thursday as news of a conditional ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, combined with renewed hopes of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, shifted global market sentiment. The precious metal’s climb drew attention from crypto investors, given the historical correlation between gold and Bitcoin as alternative stores of value during geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,476.07 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures advanced 0.8% to $4,502.84. The rally was fueled by multiple factors: a weakening U.S. dollar index, which slipped 0.1% after hitting a two-month high, making gold cheaper for foreign buyers; easing oil prices after three consecutive sessions of gains; and a pullback in inflation fears. The ceasefire deal, brokered by international mediators, took effect late Monday, though tensions persisted with reported Iranian missile strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain, and U.S. strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island.
Meanwhile, market attention turned to U.S. labor data. The ADP report showed private employers added 122,000 jobs in May, beating expectations. A separate ISM survey revealed that prices paid by services businesses jumped to their highest since 2022, driven by petroleum costs. This reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates higher for longer—a typically bearish signal for non-yielding assets like gold and Bitcoin.
For crypto markets, the mix of signals was complex. A successful U.S.-Iran deal could lower energy prices and ease inflation, potentially supporting risk assets. However, a breakdown in talks could rekindle safe-haven demand for both gold and Bitcoin. Analysts suggest Bitcoin may see increased volatility ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, a critical input for Fed policy. The dollar’s weakness offered some support, but the prospect of sustained high rates capped upside.
Other metals also moved: silver rose 0.9% to $73.41 per ounce, platinum gained 1.3% to $1,884.60, while copper slipped on global growth concerns. Crypto traders will monitor diplomatic developments and economic data closely, as gold’s trajectory often provides early clues for Bitcoin’s next move.
