Bitcoin briefly surpassed $67,000 on Monday, buoyed by a preliminary peace agreement between the United States and Iran that reopened the Strait of Hormuz and eased geopolitical tensions. Despite the immediate price recovery of nearly 4% over the past week, several analysts are flagging conflicting technical signals that suggest both a near-term rally and a potential sharp correction.
Crypto analyst Doctor Profit highlighted a worrying similarity between current market structure and the setup preceding the FTX collapse in 2022. Before that crash, Bitcoin exhibited a bullish divergence on the weekly chart, luring traders near $20,000 before panic selling ensued. The same bullish divergence pattern is now appearing again on Bitcoin’s weekly timeframe, raising the possibility of another capitulation event. On-chain data from Alphractal reveals that Bitcoin holders are sitting on the second-largest unrealized loss in the asset’s history, yet realized losses stay low—indicating that broad panic selling has not yet materialized. If investors begin offloading at a loss, a capitulation phase could follow. Ali Martinez’s CVDD metric, which marked previous cycle bottoms, currently sits near $48,000, aligning with Doctor Profit’s earlier call that the $40,000–$48,000 range represents a potential final bottom zone.
In contrast, analyst Sherlockwhale identified a bullish weekly candle formation with a 92.9% historical hit rate since 2017, projecting a move toward $73,600. Another analyst, Ted, expects Bitcoin to test $72,000–$74,000 before a possible decline to $50,000–$52,000 in the third quarter. The mix of an ultra-bullish pattern with macro capitulation warnings creates a highly uncertain outlook for the flagship cryptocurrency.
