Cardano's ADA token has come under renewed downside pressure, erasing a portion of its recent 35% recovery rally as large holders resumed distribution and derivatives metrics turned decisively bearish. The sell-off pushed ADA below the critical $0.175 level on July 8, extending a four-day losing streak that has wiped out gains from a brief rebound from late June lows.
The downturn follows a period of modest optimism. On-chain data from Santiment had shown a surge in network activity, with nearly 15,000 new non-empty wallets added since June 23, eclipsing pre-SecondFi exploit holder counts. That uptick helped ADA climb from around $0.1400 to test the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $0.1858. Two consecutive days of exchange supply removal—the largest since June 23—occurred on July 6 and 7, suggesting some accumulation amidst the bounce.
However, the positive momentum stalled quickly. According to Santiment's Supply Distribution metric, wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA collectively dumped approximately 190 million tokens since July 1. This renewed whale selling intensified bearish sentiment, outweighing the earlier wallet growth and dragging prices back below the 50-day EMA.
Derivatives data further illustrates the deteriorating mood. The long-to-short ratio on ADA perpetual futures fell to 0.79, approaching a one-month low, while open interest-weighted funding rates turned negative at -0.0060%, meaning short sellers are paying longs to maintain positions. Such dynamics suggest that bearish bets dominate, and traders anticipate further declines.
Technically, the picture remains fragile. ADA is trading beneath all major moving averages, with the 50-day EMA at $0.185, the 100-day at $0.216, and the 200-day at $0.289 all well above spot price. The Relative Strength Index is hovering near 51, and the MACD has inched positive, but neither signal is strong enough to confirm a reversal. Key resistance lies at $0.173 and $0.185; failure to reclaim those levels could open the door to a retest of the psychological $0.150 support, with a break below risking a slide toward the cycle low at $0.138.
