Grayscale's latest research indicates that Bitcoin's current bear market might persist until September or October if historical four-year cycles repeat. The firm's analysis shows that previous downturns typically bottomed about a year after market peaks, and the current decline from a $125,000 peak could follow that pattern. However, Grayscale's Head of Research Zach Pandl offered a contrasting view based on macroeconomic conditions.
Pandl noted that Bitcoin may have already bottomed if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged and economic growth remains stable. He argued that Bitcoin increasingly trades like a mature financial asset, and previous downturns coincided with slowing growth or rising real rates. If inflation forces additional rate hikes, the bear market could extend.
Grayscale also addressed concerns about Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) Bitcoin treasury. The firm sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million to cover dividends and boost its dollar reserve to $2.55 billion, covering 17 months of payouts. This eased fears of emergency Bitcoin sales but downside risks remain if the CLARITY Act stalls or the Fed tightens further.
