IREN Limited heads into its fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 earnings report on August 27, after the closing bell, following a volatile two-day stretch in its stock. The shares fell around 5% to $40.16 on Wednesday as investors de-risked ahead of the print, then rebounded more than 4% to $43.25 on Thursday, tracking gains in neocloud peers after Nvidia's results.
Wall Street consensus calls for a loss of $0.46 per share on revenue of $135.6 million, a roughly 28% year-over-year decline. Analyst sentiment has deteriorated heading into the report: there have been no upward EPS revisions in the past three months, two analysts have cut estimates, and revenue estimates have received ten downward revisions with zero upward moves. The most optimistic revenue projection is $185 million, still below the $188 million recorded a year earlier.
The main focus is forward guidance. In July, IREN raised its 2026 annual recurring revenue target to over $4 billion after signing multi-year AI cloud contracts worth about $2.8 billion, with management saying around 85% of that revised ARR target was already contracted. The company expects to deliver 140,000 GPUs by the end of 2026 and has expanded self-built AI Cloud capacity from about 3MW to 480MW this year, targeting 1.2GW in 2027. Nvidia added to AI infrastructure optimism with revenue of $96 billion versus the $92 billion consensus and forward guidance implying about 70% growth by fiscal 2028. Passage Research models IREN's 2027 ARR above $6.5 billion and AI Cloud ARR reaching nearly $11 billion by 2029.
Still, IREN earns most of its current revenue from Bitcoin mining, and the quarterly comparison was pressured by Bitcoin's bear-market conditions. Bitcoin has since recovered to about $80,200 from a year-to-date low near $57,300. Technical and balance-sheet concerns also linger: a death cross has triggered momentum selling, while investors worry about debt-funded expansion, the Mirantis share overhang, and elevated short interest. Key stock levels to watch are support around $33.35 and resistance near $50.
