Strategy Inc. faces a potential new challenge after MSCI proposed rules that could exclude the company—and other Bitcoin treasury firms—from its global equity indexes. The consultation focuses on whether companies are primarily engaged in accumulating assets rather than running operating businesses, and it could add strain to the financing model behind Strategy's more than $60 billion in Bitcoin purchases.
The proposal follows an earlier MSCI plan that would have specifically targeted companies with large digital-asset holdings; that version was abandoned earlier in 2026. The latest framework applies five financial metrics: operating asset intensity, expense intensity, cash flow, fair value intensity, and capital dependence. A company would be deemed ineligible if it fails MSCI’s core operating-assets screen and at least four of the five additional tests. According to MSCI, applying the methodology to May 2026 data would have resulted in the removal of Strategy, Metaplanet Inc., and Yellow Cake Plc.
Strategy has publicly pushed back, arguing that digital assets are assets and that index providers should measure markets. Analysts noted that removal from major benchmarks could reduce demand for Strategy shares, shrink the investor base, and create a technical overhang. MSCI is also considering watchlists, buffer thresholds, and a requirement that companies fail the screens in two consecutive review periods before removal to limit disruption.
Separately, Strategy shares rose more than 12% on Thursday as Bitcoin broke above $80,000, reinforcing the company’s role as a leveraged equity proxy for the cryptocurrency. The Nasdaq Composite added 1.5%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.81%. The latest jump follows a week in which Strategy shares climbed more than 35% as Bitcoin moved back above $70,000. Strategy now holds 840,447 Bitcoin, roughly 4% of total Bitcoin supply.
Wall Street views were mixed. Bernstein cut its Strategy price target to $350 from $450 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing an updated Bitcoin cycle timeline and faster-than-expected equity dilution from share sales. Bernstein still expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and around $300,000 at the next cycle peak in 2029, with a bull-case scenario of $500,000. Canaccord raised its target to $175 from $130 and kept a Buy rating. Analysts also highlighted the debasement trade, noting that BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, and SPDR's gold ETF, GLD, had returned to the top 10 most-traded ETFs.
Bernstein said Strategy’s strengthened balance sheet provides about 3.9 years of cash coverage for annual interest and preferred dividend obligations. The analysts added that continued Bitcoin strength and a recovery in Strategy’s STRC preferred stock toward $100 could allow the company to resume Bitcoin purchases more aggressively. They also pointed out that about 59% of Bitcoin’s supply had not moved over the previous 12 months, while Bitcoin gained 28% over 10 days following an approximately 50% decline from its October 2025 peak.
From a technical perspective, Strategy shares are above their 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages but remain below the 200-day average of $141.60. The stock’s relative strength index sits at 73.26, signaling overbought conditions. Despite the recent rally, the shares remain down about 59.5% over the past 12 months.
