Bitcoin’s climb from roughly $63,500 to above $80,000 has been driven primarily by spot demand rather than leveraged speculation, according to an assessment from QCP Capital. The firm noted that spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows over eight sessions during the advance, while BTC-denominated futures open interest declined from around 646,000 BTC in mid-August to about 588,000 BTC.
Funding rates remained below levels typically associated with crowded long positions, and options positioning shifted with call skew increasing while the put-call ratio stayed below one ahead of Jackson Hole. QCP interpreted these signals as evidence that spot purchases and short covering—not aggressive leverage—powered the move, creating a healthier market structure than previous speculative rallies.
The macro backdrop remains mixed. July core PCE held at 3.3% year-over-year, while headline PCE reached 3.7% annually; markets priced about a 35% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Three policymakers dissented at July’s meeting in favor of a hike. Separately, the U.S. Treasury announced that starting September 9 it will raise the per-operation size of liquidity-support buybacks for 10- to 30-year bonds from a $2 billion maximum to at least $4 billion. That announcement helped long-term yields fall, weakened the dollar, and supported gold and Bitcoin, though QCP stressed it is not quantitative easing and does not expand central bank reserves.
QCP placed Bitcoin within an $81,000 to $86,000 range, with roughly $83,300 inside that zone. Nvidia’s results added to risk appetite after the company reported $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue, up 106% year over year, and guided for about $108 billion next quarter. For QCP, the key short-term question is whether strong spot demand persists.
