Bitcoin’s historically low volatility is being shaped less by the size of the market than by who holds the coins, according to analysis from Glassnode published on September 8, 2026. The firm found that long-term holder supply explains more variation in Bitcoin’s one-month realized volatility than market capitalization, open interest, funding rates, or trading activity. Illiquid supply ranked second, while liveliness and absolute funding rates followed closely, reinforcing the idea that ownership structure can suppress abrupt price swings more effectively than headline capitalization alone.
Bitcoin is trading near $78,000 after briefly moving above $82,000 last week. More than 71% of Bitcoin’s supply is currently in profit, approaching the historical mean of 74.7% that has often coincided with transitions from bear-market conditions toward bull-market phases. By comparison, during May’s consolidation above $82,500, only about 67% of supply was profitable, and the short-term holder cost basis fell as low as $68,400 during the summer.
The same nominal price now leaves a larger share of coins in profit, creating a deeper pool of potential sell-side liquidity near previous local highs. Broader market conditions are also supportive: crypto market capitalization excluding Bitcoin, Ether, and stablecoins has risen by $51.2 billion since the start of September, moving above mid-August levels, while ETF inflows and stablecoin growth continue to underpin demand.
Analysts expect the current range to remain intact for now, describing the market as being in a consolidation phase with an upside bias rather than a confirmed breakout. The next tests come from the September 9 Treasury buyback and the September 11 CPI report, with the two-year yield above 4.34%. If ETF demand persists despite elevated front-end yields, it may signal that monetary policy rates are becoming less binding for crypto markets.
