Solana is trading near $121.93 as of October 5–6, just under the late-September high of $124.53, after spending a week in a narrowing range between about $118 and that high. The stalled advance leaves Standard Chartered’s year-end target of $250 looking increasingly demanding: from current levels SOL would need to gain roughly 107% in under three months, lifting its market capitalization from about $71 billion to around $147 billion. The bank lowered its 2026 target from $310 to $250 in February while raising a 2030 target to $2,000, with analyst Geoff Kendrick citing a shift toward SOL/stablecoin DEX pairs and future AI-driven micropayments. Kendrick also cautioned that Solana could trail Ethereum in 2026 and 2027 until payment volume expands. Solana has gained about 18% in the past month but remains 59% below its January 2025 all-time high of $293.
The daily chart shows fading momentum. RSI reads 65.58, below the reading above 80 when SOL first hit $110 in late August and below the roughly 70 peak when it tagged $124.53 in late September—a bearish divergence. Volume in recent sessions is among the thinnest since the August breakout. Key levels: the 20-day SMA at $117.44 is first support; below that, $106.56–$109.36 combines the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, 50-day SMA and rising channel floor; $99.97 is the 0.382 retracement. Resistance sits at $127, the channel top, then $130. A daily close above $124.53 could open the path to $127–$130, while a close below $106.56 would break the channel and shift attention to $99.97. Trader Sweep sees an accumulation phase and warns a drop below $110 is possible before the next leg higher.
Fundamentally, the Solana Foundation released Solana DvP on Tuesday, an open-source delivery-versus-payment settlement program shaped by input from JPMorgan. Under the MIT license, two institutions can swap a tokenized security and its payment in one atomic transaction: two escrows are opened, both sides fund, and a settlement authority approves, with transfers completing together or not at all. This removes delivery-versus-payment risk and reduces settlement from one or two days to seconds, according to the Foundation. JPMorgan’s role is narrower than some headlines suggest—the bank supplied institutional settlement requirements but did not design, operate, approve or guarantee the program. The bank has real experience in this area: in December 2025 it arranged a $50 million commercial paper issuance for Galaxy Digital on Solana, bought by Coinbase and Franklin Templeton and paid in USDC.
Solana-linked ETF net inflows rose 40% in September to $271 million from $194 million in August. Decentralized app fees, including Pump.fun, topped $100 million for a second straight week, the highest since August 2025. Validators doubled the network’s disinflation rate on September 26, slowing new coin issuance, though that does not by itself create demand. Solana’s circulating supply is about 588 million coins with no maximum supply. On the RWA side, the Foundation reported about $3.7 billion in non-stablecoin real-world assets in July, passing $4 billion in August, and Allium data shows Solana handled 47% of on-chain RWA trades over the year through August.
Still, DvP has not yet moved the price, and institutional competition is intense. Confidential settlement is planned but not live, and banks rarely expose positions on a transparent ledger. DTCC ran production tokenized-securities transactions in July and plans a full tokenization service this month; Swift has 17 banks preparing pilots; JPMorgan’s private Kinexys network averaged more than $2 billion a day by 2025; and an OKX/Intercontinental Exchange venture filed with the SEC this week for round-the-clock tokenized U.S. stock trading. Until named institutions use DvP in production, the program’s price impact remains prospective.
