Cardano (ADA) was trading near $0.2156 on Friday, recovering about 2% after falling to $0.2105 on Thursday and dropping roughly 6% in the previous session. The bounce remained fragile below key resistance levels.
On-chain data showed mixed whale positioning. According to Santiment, wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA trimmed their share of circulating supply to 37.93% from 38.27% on October 10, while addresses with more than 100 million ADA increased their share from 15.92% to 16.04%. The percentage of ADA supply in profit also fell sharply to 17.8% from 30.78%, reflecting pressure from lower prices rather than uniform profit-taking.
Derivatives markets signaled caution. CoinGlass reported a 3.3% drop in Cardano futures open interest over 24 hours to $467.97 million, with total liquidations near $1.08 million, almost entirely from long positions. Funding rates remained positive at 0.0038%, leaving a mixed picture in perpetual futures.
Technical indicators stayed bearish. ADA traded below the 50-day EMA around $0.2274 and a broken rising trendline near $0.2282, while the 200-day EMA near $0.2322 formed a higher barrier. The RSI sat near 41 and the MACD was in negative territory. Analysts pointed to $0.20 as immediate support, with a break exposing the August 30 low of $0.1894. A sustained daily close above the 200-day EMA would be needed to strengthen the recovery case.
Despite the weakness, analyst Master Ananda maintained a longer-term bullish outlook. He highlighted a falling wedge and a rounded bottom on the three-day chart, projecting upside targets near $1.07, $2.06 and $3.248, with a move to $3.25 exceeding Cardano's prior record near $3.10. Still, he cautioned traders to prepare for losses as well as gains.
Separate reports on Cardano lending activity described new stablecoin products and changing yields, while the Cardano Foundation has called for clearer US crypto rules and commented on EU proposals around staking and decentralized services. Those developments do not directly explain ADA's latest price swings.
