Bernstein released a new research note on Monday ahead of third-quarter earnings from Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle, arguing that crypto trading is no longer the central growth driver for major listed crypto platforms. Instead, the analysts expect prediction markets, derivatives and tokenization to shape revenue trajectories through 2028.
The firm maintained Outperform ratings on COIN, HOOD and CRCL, but revised targets and forecasts in diverging directions. Coinbase’s price target was cut to $250 from $330, with 2026 revenue forecast lowered by roughly 32% to $5.5 billion. Bernstein now expects a full-year loss of $2.60 per share versus its previous estimate of a $5.97 profit. “We no longer assume any bullish crypto price action in our estimates,” analysts wrote. The note projects Coinbase prediction markets and derivatives products could generate about $2 billion in revenue by 2028, up from around $600 million earlier in 2026, while spot trading is expected to stagnate at $150 billion in Q3.
Robinhood received more optimistic treatment. Bernstein raised revenue estimates by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 3% for 2028 while keeping a $160 price target. The analysts expect prediction-market revenue of $1.7 billion in 2028, slightly ahead of projected crypto revenue of $1.6 billion. Event contracts could account for around 18% of total revenue by 2028. Robinhood generated $156 million from event contracts in Q2 2026, surpassing equities and crypto transaction revenue individually. Bernstein also expects a 21% sequential jump in event contract volume to about 16.4 billion contracts. Robinhood’s native blockchain, launched in July, produced around $90 billion in transaction volume and $50 million in fees during Q3, mostly from memecoin trading. The company has also expanded partnerships with Crypto.com and OG.com to broaden prediction-market distribution.
Circle’s price target was raised to $145 from $140. Bernstein expects Q3 revenue of about $770 million despite a decline in USDC supply to roughly $73 billion from $77 billion in Q2. The analysts highlighted Circle’s Arc token presales as a new revenue stream beyond interest on USDC reserves, including transaction fees and validator staking revenue. Circle shares were around $80.50, making it the only one of the three stocks in positive territory year to date.
